Regionals Preview I
The dust from Sectionals has settled and teams are eagerly anticipating the action that starts this weekend at Regionals. This post offers up my assessment of what could go down this weekend.
Disclaimer: I haven't been to a single college tournament this year (DUI hardly counts), so most of this analysis is based off of results on the Score Reporter, impressions of teams from years past, reviewing availble rosters, and insider information passed along the grapevine. Hopefully those with more informed perspectives will chime in to offer up their opinions!
NORTHWEST
Bids: 3
Teams: 13
Top contenders: Stanford, UBC, UW, Davis, Berkeley
Spoilers: Santa Cruz, Oregon
With three bids, there are a lot of teams that think they have a shot at going to Nationals. And they are right. Unlike many previous years, there is no clear favorite to win the region outright. Berkeley would have been the top choice before Sectionals as it had not lost a single game to NW competition in the regular season. However, Davis and Stanford have been steadily improving all season and were able to upset the Pie Queens at Sectionals. Stanford's improvement has been especially dramatic: it lost to Berkeley 10-3 at the beginning of the season, lost to Davis by one mid season, and turned around to soundly beat both teams at Sectionals. But will it be enough to hold off UBC and UW? UBC hasn't played much NW competition and is a bit of a wildcard. It has a winning record over UW (2-1) and beat Davis in March, so just because it hasn't played many tough games recently doesn't mean it can't win tight matches. UW's chances will likely rest on how well its starters are able to step up into the void left by Claire Suver's torn ACL and whether the weather forecast changes to offer up more zone conditions. The battles in pool play and throughout both the frontdoor and backdoor brackets are what make NW Regionals so exciting to watch. Based on my biased loyalties, I would bet on (hope for) Stanford to qualify, but the other two spots are too close to call...
SOUTH
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top contenders: Texas, Truman State
Spoilers: Kansas, Oklahoma, Rice
Texas is the historical favorite here as it has won South Regionals for the entire college careers of all the players in the region. Melee has also had the strongest schedule of teams in the South this year, and facing the tough competition at three Cultimate tournaments is a great way to prepare for the challenges of one bid to Nationals. Texas did lose to Rice at Sectionals, even though the game's significance is tough to interpret: were the 6-5 and 5-6 games between Texas and Rice simply a product of a weird format that only allowed for hour long games? Did Texas lose its focus at Sectionals? Has Rice become a real contender in the region? Meanwhile, Truman State has an impressive record this year (34-9) and faced tough out-of-region competition at both Mardi Gras and Centex. In fact, Truman State gave Wisconsin a closer game (6-13) than Texas has (1-13 and 3-13) this season. It's nice to see a little more parity emerge in the South and one bid certainly ups the ante. I predict Texas holds onto the region by the skin of its teeth.
GREAT LAKES
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top Contenders: Michigan, Illinois
Spoilers: Ohio, Northwestern, Ohio State
The Great Lakes missed a size wildcard by one on-time roster this year, so I sincerely hope that all the teams vying for the lone bid got their paperwork in before the early deadline. Michigan won the region last year, overcoming close games at every step of the way in the championship bracket, and then tied for 9th at Nationals. This year, Michigan's main competition at Regionals will be Illinois. The RRI and UPA Top 25's algorithms disagree over which team should be ranked higher, but the fact remains that both have had solid seasons thus far. Illinois' main claim to fame this year is that it took 5th place at Southerns amidst tough competition. Michigan traveled to more tournaments, including QCTU, Terminus, and Centex, and made quarterfinals twice (at QCTU and Terminus). Assuming Michigan and Illinois make finals, the game will come down to which team's big players make more big plays. My money is on Michigan's veteran cast to pull through in the end. Of course, Northwestern and Ohio will be fighting tooth and nail for their shot at the game-to-go and have the talent to offer up some surprises.
Anyone care to comment?
Disclaimer: I haven't been to a single college tournament this year (DUI hardly counts), so most of this analysis is based off of results on the Score Reporter, impressions of teams from years past, reviewing availble rosters, and insider information passed along the grapevine. Hopefully those with more informed perspectives will chime in to offer up their opinions!
NORTHWEST
Bids: 3
Teams: 13
Top contenders: Stanford, UBC, UW, Davis, Berkeley
Spoilers: Santa Cruz, Oregon
With three bids, there are a lot of teams that think they have a shot at going to Nationals. And they are right. Unlike many previous years, there is no clear favorite to win the region outright. Berkeley would have been the top choice before Sectionals as it had not lost a single game to NW competition in the regular season. However, Davis and Stanford have been steadily improving all season and were able to upset the Pie Queens at Sectionals. Stanford's improvement has been especially dramatic: it lost to Berkeley 10-3 at the beginning of the season, lost to Davis by one mid season, and turned around to soundly beat both teams at Sectionals. But will it be enough to hold off UBC and UW? UBC hasn't played much NW competition and is a bit of a wildcard. It has a winning record over UW (2-1) and beat Davis in March, so just because it hasn't played many tough games recently doesn't mean it can't win tight matches. UW's chances will likely rest on how well its starters are able to step up into the void left by Claire Suver's torn ACL and whether the weather forecast changes to offer up more zone conditions. The battles in pool play and throughout both the frontdoor and backdoor brackets are what make NW Regionals so exciting to watch. Based on my biased loyalties, I would bet on (hope for) Stanford to qualify, but the other two spots are too close to call...
SOUTH
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top contenders: Texas, Truman State
Spoilers: Kansas, Oklahoma, Rice
Texas is the historical favorite here as it has won South Regionals for the entire college careers of all the players in the region. Melee has also had the strongest schedule of teams in the South this year, and facing the tough competition at three Cultimate tournaments is a great way to prepare for the challenges of one bid to Nationals. Texas did lose to Rice at Sectionals, even though the game's significance is tough to interpret: were the 6-5 and 5-6 games between Texas and Rice simply a product of a weird format that only allowed for hour long games? Did Texas lose its focus at Sectionals? Has Rice become a real contender in the region? Meanwhile, Truman State has an impressive record this year (34-9) and faced tough out-of-region competition at both Mardi Gras and Centex. In fact, Truman State gave Wisconsin a closer game (6-13) than Texas has (1-13 and 3-13) this season. It's nice to see a little more parity emerge in the South and one bid certainly ups the ante. I predict Texas holds onto the region by the skin of its teeth.
GREAT LAKES
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top Contenders: Michigan, Illinois
Spoilers: Ohio, Northwestern, Ohio State
The Great Lakes missed a size wildcard by one on-time roster this year, so I sincerely hope that all the teams vying for the lone bid got their paperwork in before the early deadline. Michigan won the region last year, overcoming close games at every step of the way in the championship bracket, and then tied for 9th at Nationals. This year, Michigan's main competition at Regionals will be Illinois. The RRI and UPA Top 25's algorithms disagree over which team should be ranked higher, but the fact remains that both have had solid seasons thus far. Illinois' main claim to fame this year is that it took 5th place at Southerns amidst tough competition. Michigan traveled to more tournaments, including QCTU, Terminus, and Centex, and made quarterfinals twice (at QCTU and Terminus). Assuming Michigan and Illinois make finals, the game will come down to which team's big players make more big plays. My money is on Michigan's veteran cast to pull through in the end. Of course, Northwestern and Ohio will be fighting tooth and nail for their shot at the game-to-go and have the talent to offer up some surprises.
Anyone care to comment?
posted by Gambler at 10:05 AM
5 Comments:
Gwen-
I agree with your comments about Stanford's steady improvement over the course of the season. I'm sure that getting Julia, Danielle, and Kara back doesn't hurt either. In my biased opinion, I fully expect the Pie Queens to qualify, but I agree... the NW region is scary good.
With regard to Texas Sectionals, the 1-day, 7-game, 1-hour rounds format was certainly interesting. Teams also had to travel between field sites and tornado-like winds made scoring the upwinder very difficult. I thought that Rice played well- they had two handlers who did a fantastic job with the disc. In the finals, I'm pretty sure we beat them by more than 1- we had at least 2 upwind breaks.
I am also glad to see increased parity in the South Region- it means good things for women's ultimate.
AC Regionals are also this weekend- another region with some strong contenders: Georgia, Florida, UNC, NC State, Emory. I'm going to pick Florida to win the region- they have a strong cast of players who play well together and they'll be hungry after a Sectionals upset. However, that being said, all of the top teams are very athletic and that will make for some interesting games.
Good luck to all!
- Michelle
Berkeley '04-'06
Texas '07-'08
Missing from the spoilers list, in hindsight: PLU. Never underestimate a team with Idaho on it, even as coach.... did he sneak onto the field in a skirt for their game against Davis? Also, they gave PQ their closest (in terms of points) game of the tournament, at 12-9.
I definitely was remiss to leave PLU off the NW spoilers list. They had a great weekend and the fact that they are only graduating one player means this athletic team will be making even more waves next year. The game of the tournment was the UW-Stanford semifinals. As the game got down to the wire, both teams knew that this was essentially a game-to-go as the loser would be hard pressed to win two more games after putting it all out there in the semis. Both teams showed real heart.
Looks like I didn't call the South or the Great Lakes correctly either. Northwestern sure turned it around on Sunday, upseting Illinois and then avenging a pool play loss against Michigan to take the sole bid.
And congratulations are in order for Truman State's first time qualifying for the championships. I wish I knew the score of the Texas-TSU game, but the Score Reporter isn't updated yet.
I completely missed predicting AC Regionals because it wasn't up on the Score Reporter by the time I posted to my blog last Wednesday. The scores sure make it seem like it was closely contested every step of the way. 5 games on Sunday were decided by two points or less... Emory and Florida are now battle-tested heading to Columbus.
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Truman State won 14-10. They were up 8-5 at half and we managed to pull within 1 at several points during the second half, but they pulled away at the end of the game. #10 Kate Sanders had a great game for TSU- her height and reading abilities made her very difficult to contain. Congrats to TSU on a great game- represent us well at Nationals.
- Michelle
Berkeley '04-'06
Texas '07-'08
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