Nationals Bracket

As I was filling out my bracket for Rodney Jacobson I was amazed by how hard it was to pick the outcome. The level of parity in the women's division grows every year, but this must be the first year where no team's seed is safe. For every favorite (UCLA) there is a wildcard (Ottawa). For every perennial qualifier (Carleton) there is a newcomer (Northeastern). For every exciting regional re-match (UBC vs. Oregon) there is a battle yet to be played out (UW vs. Wisconsin).

Despite the difficulties, I didn't back down from the challenge of picking a bracket. Call this a preview, call it bulletin-board material, call it a spectators guide, call it biased, call it what you will. These are my predictions:

Pool A:
UCLA (2-1)
Michigan (3-0)
North Carolina (1-2)
Maryland (0-3)

Congrats to Maryland for qualifying for the first time in the school's history. Beating Pittsburgh at Regionals is not a small accomplishment and Maryland's top line is solid. However, I think the team will earn it's victories on Saturday in the consolation round as opposed to on Friday in pool play. After being beat by UCLA in the first round, UNC will have re-focused and dispelled with any jitters by the time the Pleiades meet Michigan. UNC beat Michigan soundly back in February in windy conditions, but Michigan has been steadily improving and honing its game, punctuated by a flawless performance in gusty weather at Regionals a few weeks ago. I bet that Flywheel avenges its loss and goes on to upset UCLA. A bold prediction given how many strong players UCLA has on its roster, but I think that Michigan may have more players able to utilize deep looks. Calling this upset has big ramifications later in my bracket, but I'll stick to my guns to make it interesting. Either way, this game will be a battle down to the wire.

Pool B:
UBC (3-0)
Oregon (1-2)
Carleton (2-1)
Northeastern (0-3)

Northeastern is a young team (mostly juniors and sophomores) who won the Northeast Region by beating MIT in finals. On its first trip to Nationals, the team will likely struggle against the wide-open, faced-paced offenses of UBC and Oregon. Carleton is the team in this pool I predict will outplay it's seed. Syzygy hasn't posted an incredible win-loss record this season, but the team played incredibly well at Regionals and had the opportunity to beat Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Oregon has a number of great players on its roster, but does not play a conservative style of ultimate, which could hurt the team if Carleton doesn't relinquish the disc much. Offensive efficiency is why UBC will win the pool. Oregon will give the Thunderbirds a much closer game than the blow-out at Regionals where the Fugue decided to save its legs for the backdoor, but UBC's depth and consistency should win out.

Pool C:
Washington (2-1)
Wisconsin (3-0)
Texas (1-2)
Michigan State (0-2)

Michigan State won Club Nationals in 1983 before the women's college division was formed, but this will be the first time MSU will have qualified for Nationals since the late 1980's. The team has a few skilled athletes and a number of seniors who could catch Texas off-guard if Mele isn't careful. Texas has been known to drop games to teams it looks passed, but I'm assuming that Texas will be fully fired up to be playing in Boulder. Wisconsin is also stoked to have another shot at the title and won't be happy with another quarterfinals exit. In fact, I expect that Wisconsin takes it to Washington in the last round of the day. The top of Washington's roster includes a number of exceptional players, but Wisconsin could earn turnovers by putting pressure on the Element players who don't play club. It will be a battle for which team gets to refer to itself as UW.

Pool D:
Ottawa (3-0)
UC-Santa Barbara (2-1)
Wake Forest (1-2)
MIT (0-3)

This is the only pool I have predicted going according to seed, but that doesn't mean there won't be a number of hotly-contested matches. All eyes are going to be on Ottawa to see the team that has been in hiding since winning Vegas out of the blue. Ottawa's small roster should be fresh on Day 1 and I anticipate they win out their games. The real test will be against UC-Santa Barbara's athleticism and deep game. Wake Forest is another newcomer to the Nationals scene which will be used to the run-and-gun offense that UCSB plays because it is so prevalent in the AC region. Depth could be an issue for Wake matching up against the higher seeded teams. MIT upset Dartmouth twice at NE Regionals, but did not had a particularly impressive season before that and I would be surprised if they pulled out a victory in pool play.

Pre-Quarters:
Carleton (B2) v. (C3) Texas
Washington (C2) v. (B3) Oregon
UC-Santa Barbara (D2) v. (A3) North Carolina
UCLA (A2) v. (D3) Wake Forest

I think all of these games go according to seed, with the two games between the B and C pools providing the most nail-biting entertainment. Winning the tough pool play game between Carleton and Oregon essentially decides which team will make quarters since the difference between the 2 and 3 seeds in pool C is noticeable. I would love to see a rematch of Washington and Oregon--the two played a close cross-over game at Regionals where Washington won 8-6 at the hard cap. These teams know each other well off-the-field and it would be a showdown between the Suver sisters. Not good for the NW strength bids, though. :-(

Quarters:
Michigan (A1) v. Carleton (B2)
Ottawa (D1) v. Washington (C2)
Wisconsin (C1) v. UC-Santa Barbara (D2)
UBC (B1) v. UCLA (A2)

This is getting exciting! I like how the quarters field I predicted is exactly half west coast and half non-west coast teams. I think that Michigan will hold off Carleton and earn Flywheel its first semifinals berth since I can remember. Nice accomplishment for the team that proved it was a contender early by winning both CCC and Elite Eights in the fall. The Washington is one of the few teams at Nationals that Ottawa has played this season, beating Element 10-6 in the quarters at Vegas. Both teams should be fresh for this game and will invoke an old rivalry between some of the Junior Worlds players from the USA and Canada. Ottawa is the taller team and if Washington can't contain the step-around breaks of some of the Lady Gee Gees' handlers, the game will go in the Canadians' favor. UCSB versus Wisconsin will be another tight game. The two teams have split their games this season, most recently with Wisconsin pulling out a one point victory at Centex. UCSB will benefit from additional coaching help this weekend, but I like Wisconsin's chances of knocking off last year's finalist. Wisconsin has really impressed me with how focused they've been the past few seasons and I think this is the time for it to pay off. UBC against UCLA is another great match-up. UCLA is the only team to have a winning record against UBC this season, which is part of the reason for UCLA's number one seed going into the tournament. UBC dominated NW Regionals, but never actually had to play against a quality team who was in an elimination situation. Despite having the best player in college ultimate, I predict that UBC falls to UCLA in quarters.

Semis:
Michigan (A1) vs. Ottawa (D1)
Wisconsin (C1) vs. UCLA (A2)

Michigan will have made a great run through the tournament to get this far, but I don't think the squad will have enough experience to counter Ottawa's club-savvy roster. Ottawa makes it to the finals to uphold the recent women's division history of teams making the finals the first time they qualify for Nationals (UW in 2005, UCLA in 2006, UCSB in 2007). Meanwhile, UCLA will be trying to hold of Wisconsin for the third time this season. UCLA will have played a extra game by this point, but I have faith that BLU's coaching staff will have made good use of its deep roster to allow the team's stars to shine in this game. UCLA makes it back to finals.

Finals:
Ottawa (D1) vs. UCLA (A2)

Not the all-Canada finals that some have predicted/hoped for, but I think these two teams represent the field well. Ottawa represents the teams that benefit from Juniors and/or Club experience while UCLA represents the home-grown teams without those advantages. Playing on the third day of a tournament with tough games each day will be different than Ottawa's experience at Vegas where (because of a low initial seed) the team only saw Nationals-caliber squads on the third day. Additionally, not attending any tournaments in-between Vegas and the Series means that Ottawa's women might be in "track shape", but they might not be in as good "tournament shape" as UCLA. This is definitely going to be a fun game to watch and I would bet on multiple lead changes. My money's on the Americans pulling it out. UCLA's program has been building towards a first place medal for years now, and I think this is the season when those dreams come true.

There you have it, folks. I know that many of these predictions will turn out to be false and hopefully others disagree with some of my picks (so I can win the bracket competition...). But what fun would it be if everything was a foregone conclusion?

Good luck to all the teams and competitors!