Nationals predictions...
With Nationals less than a week away, I can't believe there haven't been more predictions thrown around yet. I can only assume that means everyone thinks its a forgone conclusion that Stanford will win... ;-)
This is the second year in a row that Stanford enters Nationals as the number one seed, and we all remember the surprise Washington had in store for them last year in pool play. Which team will be the UW of 2006?
I think the most likely upset of a pool's top seed will be of Wisconsin in Pool D. Not only will the team have a tough match-up every single round of the day on Friday (playing UC-Davis, Michigan, and Tufts), but Davis is the strongest second seed at the tournament. Davis has steadily improved all season long, planning its year to peak at Nationals. At many pre-Series tournaments like Vegas and DUI, Davis' younger players got to see a lot of playing time against tough competition. By the time Regionals rolled around, the team played with solid fundamentals from top to bottom and ran its offense efficiently and effectively. Plus, four of the team's leaders were also key players in the 2004 championship team--experience that can't hurt their chances. Granted, I haven't watched Wisconsin play this season, but after early February their results show a lot of easy games against lesser opponents with a loss to Michigan thrown into the mix. Will they be mentally prepared for three tough games on Day One?
Florida is the other two seed in its pool with a shot at swooping the number one spot. Florida has had a storied season this year: champions at CCC and QCTU, finalist at Southerns, semis at Centex, and the second seed from the AC. The team has a veteran group of players who are savvy enough to play a number of different junk Ds and are experienced enough to run an efficient offense. The question will be whether they can match UCLA's athleticism and whether they can shut down the devastating throws of Anna "Maddog" Nazarov and Lisa Vampoola. UCLA played flawlessly at SW Regionals and will have to play that way again to hold off FUEL.
The other upset I'm going to call will be Texas over British Columbia. I'm going a bit out on a limb here, as UBC has had a much more impressive season this year. However, UBC seems to have faltered slightly during the Series so far, losing to UW in a surprise game at Sectionals and losing by wide margins to Davis and Stanford at Regionals. Additionally, with a tight travel schedule, UBC is not getting in to Columbus early enough to practice the day before. All the other top women's teams have made this a priority, and Texas will be at the field site Thursday afternoon getting a feel for the conditions and getting over any jet lag. In 2001, travel plans affected UBC's play in pool play and it could happen again to this squad that has no Nationals experience of its own.
While Georgia seems to have been improving throughout the season, avenging losses to AC teams Florida and Emory, it won't have enough to really challenge Colorado for the one seed in Pool C. Earlier in the season, these two teams met at Centex with Colorado taking the game easily 15-6. Georgia's improvements should make the game closer this time around, but the Kali women will be in control throughout. In fact, Georgia will have to worry about just holding onto its second seed as both Emory and Dartmouth will provide some challenges.
Dartmouth and Tufts are tough fourth seeds in the C and D pools. While they might not eke out an upset, the tougher competition they provide could affect the endurance of the teams in those pools later on in the tournament. Swarthmore and Delaware got a slight boost in their rankings over the New England teams, but neither is likely to earn a win in pool play. Swarthmore's unblemished record won't last too much longer...
Out of the five west coast teams at the tournament, I think that four of them will make the semifinals: Stanford v. UC-Davis and UCLA v. Colorado in re-matches of games at NW and SW Regionals. Sure, I'm biased towards the west coast and the teams I've seen more of this year, but this seems like a pretty safe bet to me. In the finals, I'm going to call Stanford over UCLA. Yep, Colorado won't be able to break its semifinals curse yet again and the finals crowd will see Lauren Casey lead her team to a repeat championship.
Anyone care to disagree? :-)
This is the second year in a row that Stanford enters Nationals as the number one seed, and we all remember the surprise Washington had in store for them last year in pool play. Which team will be the UW of 2006?
I think the most likely upset of a pool's top seed will be of Wisconsin in Pool D. Not only will the team have a tough match-up every single round of the day on Friday (playing UC-Davis, Michigan, and Tufts), but Davis is the strongest second seed at the tournament. Davis has steadily improved all season long, planning its year to peak at Nationals. At many pre-Series tournaments like Vegas and DUI, Davis' younger players got to see a lot of playing time against tough competition. By the time Regionals rolled around, the team played with solid fundamentals from top to bottom and ran its offense efficiently and effectively. Plus, four of the team's leaders were also key players in the 2004 championship team--experience that can't hurt their chances. Granted, I haven't watched Wisconsin play this season, but after early February their results show a lot of easy games against lesser opponents with a loss to Michigan thrown into the mix. Will they be mentally prepared for three tough games on Day One?
Florida is the other two seed in its pool with a shot at swooping the number one spot. Florida has had a storied season this year: champions at CCC and QCTU, finalist at Southerns, semis at Centex, and the second seed from the AC. The team has a veteran group of players who are savvy enough to play a number of different junk Ds and are experienced enough to run an efficient offense. The question will be whether they can match UCLA's athleticism and whether they can shut down the devastating throws of Anna "Maddog" Nazarov and Lisa Vampoola. UCLA played flawlessly at SW Regionals and will have to play that way again to hold off FUEL.
The other upset I'm going to call will be Texas over British Columbia. I'm going a bit out on a limb here, as UBC has had a much more impressive season this year. However, UBC seems to have faltered slightly during the Series so far, losing to UW in a surprise game at Sectionals and losing by wide margins to Davis and Stanford at Regionals. Additionally, with a tight travel schedule, UBC is not getting in to Columbus early enough to practice the day before. All the other top women's teams have made this a priority, and Texas will be at the field site Thursday afternoon getting a feel for the conditions and getting over any jet lag. In 2001, travel plans affected UBC's play in pool play and it could happen again to this squad that has no Nationals experience of its own.
While Georgia seems to have been improving throughout the season, avenging losses to AC teams Florida and Emory, it won't have enough to really challenge Colorado for the one seed in Pool C. Earlier in the season, these two teams met at Centex with Colorado taking the game easily 15-6. Georgia's improvements should make the game closer this time around, but the Kali women will be in control throughout. In fact, Georgia will have to worry about just holding onto its second seed as both Emory and Dartmouth will provide some challenges.
Dartmouth and Tufts are tough fourth seeds in the C and D pools. While they might not eke out an upset, the tougher competition they provide could affect the endurance of the teams in those pools later on in the tournament. Swarthmore and Delaware got a slight boost in their rankings over the New England teams, but neither is likely to earn a win in pool play. Swarthmore's unblemished record won't last too much longer...
Out of the five west coast teams at the tournament, I think that four of them will make the semifinals: Stanford v. UC-Davis and UCLA v. Colorado in re-matches of games at NW and SW Regionals. Sure, I'm biased towards the west coast and the teams I've seen more of this year, but this seems like a pretty safe bet to me. In the finals, I'm going to call Stanford over UCLA. Yep, Colorado won't be able to break its semifinals curse yet again and the finals crowd will see Lauren Casey lead her team to a repeat championship.
Anyone care to disagree? :-)
posted by Gambler at 3:01 PM
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