Regionals Preview I
The dust from Sectionals has settled and teams are eagerly anticipating the action that starts this weekend at Regionals. This post offers up my assessment of what could go down this weekend.
Disclaimer: I haven't been to a single college tournament this year (DUI hardly counts), so most of this analysis is based off of results on the Score Reporter, impressions of teams from years past, reviewing availble rosters, and insider information passed along the grapevine. Hopefully those with more informed perspectives will chime in to offer up their opinions!
NORTHWEST
Bids: 3
Teams: 13
Top contenders: Stanford, UBC, UW, Davis, Berkeley
Spoilers: Santa Cruz, Oregon
With three bids, there are a lot of teams that think they have a shot at going to Nationals. And they are right. Unlike many previous years, there is no clear favorite to win the region outright. Berkeley would have been the top choice before Sectionals as it had not lost a single game to NW competition in the regular season. However, Davis and Stanford have been steadily improving all season and were able to upset the Pie Queens at Sectionals. Stanford's improvement has been especially dramatic: it lost to Berkeley 10-3 at the beginning of the season, lost to Davis by one mid season, and turned around to soundly beat both teams at Sectionals. But will it be enough to hold off UBC and UW? UBC hasn't played much NW competition and is a bit of a wildcard. It has a winning record over UW (2-1) and beat Davis in March, so just because it hasn't played many tough games recently doesn't mean it can't win tight matches. UW's chances will likely rest on how well its starters are able to step up into the void left by Claire Suver's torn ACL and whether the weather forecast changes to offer up more zone conditions. The battles in pool play and throughout both the frontdoor and backdoor brackets are what make NW Regionals so exciting to watch. Based on my biased loyalties, I would bet on (hope for) Stanford to qualify, but the other two spots are too close to call...
SOUTH
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top contenders: Texas, Truman State
Spoilers: Kansas, Oklahoma, Rice
Texas is the historical favorite here as it has won South Regionals for the entire college careers of all the players in the region. Melee has also had the strongest schedule of teams in the South this year, and facing the tough competition at three Cultimate tournaments is a great way to prepare for the challenges of one bid to Nationals. Texas did lose to Rice at Sectionals, even though the game's significance is tough to interpret: were the 6-5 and 5-6 games between Texas and Rice simply a product of a weird format that only allowed for hour long games? Did Texas lose its focus at Sectionals? Has Rice become a real contender in the region? Meanwhile, Truman State has an impressive record this year (34-9) and faced tough out-of-region competition at both Mardi Gras and Centex. In fact, Truman State gave Wisconsin a closer game (6-13) than Texas has (1-13 and 3-13) this season. It's nice to see a little more parity emerge in the South and one bid certainly ups the ante. I predict Texas holds onto the region by the skin of its teeth.
GREAT LAKES
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top Contenders: Michigan, Illinois
Spoilers: Ohio, Northwestern, Ohio State
The Great Lakes missed a size wildcard by one on-time roster this year, so I sincerely hope that all the teams vying for the lone bid got their paperwork in before the early deadline. Michigan won the region last year, overcoming close games at every step of the way in the championship bracket, and then tied for 9th at Nationals. This year, Michigan's main competition at Regionals will be Illinois. The RRI and UPA Top 25's algorithms disagree over which team should be ranked higher, but the fact remains that both have had solid seasons thus far. Illinois' main claim to fame this year is that it took 5th place at Southerns amidst tough competition. Michigan traveled to more tournaments, including QCTU, Terminus, and Centex, and made quarterfinals twice (at QCTU and Terminus). Assuming Michigan and Illinois make finals, the game will come down to which team's big players make more big plays. My money is on Michigan's veteran cast to pull through in the end. Of course, Northwestern and Ohio will be fighting tooth and nail for their shot at the game-to-go and have the talent to offer up some surprises.
Anyone care to comment?
Disclaimer: I haven't been to a single college tournament this year (DUI hardly counts), so most of this analysis is based off of results on the Score Reporter, impressions of teams from years past, reviewing availble rosters, and insider information passed along the grapevine. Hopefully those with more informed perspectives will chime in to offer up their opinions!
NORTHWEST
Bids: 3
Teams: 13
Top contenders: Stanford, UBC, UW, Davis, Berkeley
Spoilers: Santa Cruz, Oregon
With three bids, there are a lot of teams that think they have a shot at going to Nationals. And they are right. Unlike many previous years, there is no clear favorite to win the region outright. Berkeley would have been the top choice before Sectionals as it had not lost a single game to NW competition in the regular season. However, Davis and Stanford have been steadily improving all season and were able to upset the Pie Queens at Sectionals. Stanford's improvement has been especially dramatic: it lost to Berkeley 10-3 at the beginning of the season, lost to Davis by one mid season, and turned around to soundly beat both teams at Sectionals. But will it be enough to hold off UBC and UW? UBC hasn't played much NW competition and is a bit of a wildcard. It has a winning record over UW (2-1) and beat Davis in March, so just because it hasn't played many tough games recently doesn't mean it can't win tight matches. UW's chances will likely rest on how well its starters are able to step up into the void left by Claire Suver's torn ACL and whether the weather forecast changes to offer up more zone conditions. The battles in pool play and throughout both the frontdoor and backdoor brackets are what make NW Regionals so exciting to watch. Based on my biased loyalties, I would bet on (hope for) Stanford to qualify, but the other two spots are too close to call...
SOUTH
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top contenders: Texas, Truman State
Spoilers: Kansas, Oklahoma, Rice
Texas is the historical favorite here as it has won South Regionals for the entire college careers of all the players in the region. Melee has also had the strongest schedule of teams in the South this year, and facing the tough competition at three Cultimate tournaments is a great way to prepare for the challenges of one bid to Nationals. Texas did lose to Rice at Sectionals, even though the game's significance is tough to interpret: were the 6-5 and 5-6 games between Texas and Rice simply a product of a weird format that only allowed for hour long games? Did Texas lose its focus at Sectionals? Has Rice become a real contender in the region? Meanwhile, Truman State has an impressive record this year (34-9) and faced tough out-of-region competition at both Mardi Gras and Centex. In fact, Truman State gave Wisconsin a closer game (6-13) than Texas has (1-13 and 3-13) this season. It's nice to see a little more parity emerge in the South and one bid certainly ups the ante. I predict Texas holds onto the region by the skin of its teeth.
GREAT LAKES
Bids: 1
Teams: 12
Top Contenders: Michigan, Illinois
Spoilers: Ohio, Northwestern, Ohio State
The Great Lakes missed a size wildcard by one on-time roster this year, so I sincerely hope that all the teams vying for the lone bid got their paperwork in before the early deadline. Michigan won the region last year, overcoming close games at every step of the way in the championship bracket, and then tied for 9th at Nationals. This year, Michigan's main competition at Regionals will be Illinois. The RRI and UPA Top 25's algorithms disagree over which team should be ranked higher, but the fact remains that both have had solid seasons thus far. Illinois' main claim to fame this year is that it took 5th place at Southerns amidst tough competition. Michigan traveled to more tournaments, including QCTU, Terminus, and Centex, and made quarterfinals twice (at QCTU and Terminus). Assuming Michigan and Illinois make finals, the game will come down to which team's big players make more big plays. My money is on Michigan's veteran cast to pull through in the end. Of course, Northwestern and Ohio will be fighting tooth and nail for their shot at the game-to-go and have the talent to offer up some surprises.
Anyone care to comment?